BoConcept; here come the upgrades....

Today Danske upgrade FY16 eps by 18% and FY17 by 12% despite a 5% reduction in sales targets. They now see a 9.88% ebit margin vs new guidance of 9%. That could still be a touch conservative and the new 14x PE makes it cheaper now than it was last week. New Danske target is an unadventurous 550; mine is 570. 

I aim to take my profits soon but story may run further. If you have a portfolio of many stocks I would keep BoCo - but I only own two and need to recycle! For those who missed this 3-4 bagger (130 to 480) my next idea will appear soon (on the new sitewww.handelandcompany.wordpress.com)!

BoCo: Holy Moly!

Today Boconcept report their Q3: Having boosted targets last in December they do it again today.

Q3 ebit margin is 11.1% vs my guesstimate of 6%
They hike FY ebit target to 9% vs Danske on 7.9%
That looks like 13% FY16 upgrades to me.

There is more good news ahead (eg a dividend) but I think its time to lighten up

PS this blog is migrating to www.handelandcompany.wordpress.com. Pls click on it to subscribe now.

Flybe: Soft Q3....

So Flybe's Q3 report is out. Main points are growth continues but Paris attacks did create a hiatus. Flybe reacted by slowing capacity growth and protecting margins. Faintly negative but no panic.

But the good news is buried in an appendix: H1 2016/17 now has 87% of fuel hedged at $599 compared to 70% at $668 in H2 2015/16. Fuel hedges are unwinding and will boost margins from next year.....

Gigaset: Never ending story.....

At this stage Gigaset is a total punt and I would not recommend a buy. But seeing as I still have some I feel honour bound to comment.

On Friday the CEO and CFO were kicked into touch. Though personally a tragedy it's good for us minority shareholders. It's shows the 75% shareholder expects better from the company and new blood is often they way to make it happen, especially as the new CFO has a PE background.

So story rumbles onto a new chapter. Can they make their smartphone a success? Can their smart home product get traction? Who knows! Stay tuned......

BoConcept; Double upgrades.....

BoCo Q2 shows 14% sales growth and a 12% ebit margin (my guesstimate was c7%) and they have upgraded both FY 16 and FY17 targets. Shares jumped 20+% on the news.

That means consensus upgrades - for the second time this week - with new eps of DKK25 for FY17. However I reckon they make DKK40. And whereas the analyst thinks they pay a first dividend in March 2017 I reckon they do so by March 2016. After all their equity ratio has now recovered to 39% and I am pretty sure they will pay one if they exceed 40%.

So? What's not to like? New target DKK500!

BoConcept: Q2 today....

BoConcept report their Q2 later today.

Any margin over 7% would be very good news and make their FY guidance of 5-6% increasingly conservative. Incidentally the only analyst boosted his estimates by 3&13% last week.

Still cheap on 11x PE to 4/17.....

Flybe: Wow.....!

H1 results just out. If I read these right Flybe has "knocked the ball out the park."

Analysts looked for FY pbt of c£3m. Flybe seem to have reported c£22m in H1 alone. No one offs, no write downs. Let see if market likes these as much as I do.....

Flybe: Time to fly....!

Today Flybe announce the end of Project Blackbird, their efforts to re-deploy their thirsty Embraer jets which previous management leased. This will trigger upgrades and dispel previous fears of an £80m hit to the P&L over next three years.

Should jump 20% at open and reach 200p within 6 months.

Fasten seatbelts....

BoConcept: Up again - have you missed it?

Despite another 11% rise today to DKK235 you have NOT missed this.

Even now the shares trade on only 10.7x management guidance to April 2016. That's 1225m sales, 6% ebit margin, 22% tax, 2.6m shares for those who like to see the workings. Peers tend to trade on 14x. But all that excludes the highly likely chance of a further boost to targets. I suspect they get to a 9%+ margin as they only hired their new logistics head in May and he needs to make his mark.

If all this is too dry just search for Mads Mikkelsen The Guest on youtube which is BoCos new marketing campaign. I'd buy these anytime before they hit DKK375.

Flybe: 2 reasons to be cheerful.....

Flybe (79p) is stuck in the doldrums still. But two statements today hint at what lies ahead.

1 Flybe off load one of their problem jets to Norwich which should save them c£2.7m pa. Six more jets need to be offloaded but the issue is diminishing. Once out of the way the market can value the core business properly and the H1 statement in early November should underline its progress.
2 Dart PLC - aka Jet2 - today raise targets after very strong Summer trading. This news along with recent Ryanair and Easyjet comments show the trends that Flybe will likely announce in November.

On 5x PE to 3/17 Flybe is way too cheap versus peers on c14x. And soon the benefits of cheap oil will start to kick in. It's been a long slog but I am sitting tight and waiting for 200p!

BoConcept: More upgrades....

BoConcept just boost targets again.

They say Q1 sales growth has continued into Q2 (Q1 was +16%) so they upgrade FY sales growth to 5%. My guess that is both conservative and also already anticipated by the single analyst. They also boost ebit margin targets to 5-6%. Though again perhaps anticipated that effectively puts them one year ahead of schedule in the restructuring plan.

Small upgrades likely and a single digit PE. I'm buying more....

ADVA Optical: A "Cloudy" idea....

Does your company use the Cloud? Do your kids stream movies? Do you shop on Amazon? I will guess the answer is at least two out of three. That's where Added Value Optical - ADVA - comes in.

ADVA is a €500m maker of optical switches, based in Thuringia in Eastern Germany. Their switches allow old fashioned fibre optic cables to increase capacity by 160 times. As the "cloud" expands and data mushrooms, it is everyone's interests to increase speed and capacity. ADVA starts to benefit from these trends and has a new product launching in Q1 2016 called CloudConnect. I also like that the CFO and COO are both new in their positions since January 2015.

ADVA trades on 14x to 12/16 with approximately 10% of its balance sheet in net cash. Though technology can turn quickly I suspect ADVA goes from €10 to €15 by Christmas. I'm in.....

Manitou: Time to cash out...

So today I sell Manitou. The turnaround story is not over but with China wobbling and the Fed fretting there may be a de rating soon. Plus there are better places to invest: new idea following shortly....

Gigaset: Cash soon.....

Here's a good example of how markets are not as efficient as everyone suggests: Gigaset will receive c€35m of cash within the next two weeks. That's big for a debt free company with a cap of c€100m.

Yet the market has failed to re price the stock since this announcement in June. Coupled with the new Gigaset.Me smartphone launch we may be looking at liftoff soon.

Blau Himmel!

Flybe: Sector is flying.....

So last week both Easyjet and Jet2 raise targets on better fares, lower oil and strong Summer demand. Today Ryanair boost their targets by 25%. Flybe remain silent but should be enjoying similar trends.

Great data points for Flybe at 86p. My target is 200p.....